2024 Elections — My Ballot Guide

I approach my biannual ritual of putting together a ballot guide with a sense of dread of what might transpire after Nov 5th. I can’t deny a sense of futility either — are any of these down ballot measures or elections going to matter? Or are we going to be in an existential turmoil where we couldn’t care less whether it was Prop 35 or Measure D that passed? In some ways writing this blog is a (feeble) attempt to block out some of that chatter.

State-Wide

US Senate

There are two elections here — one to complete the remaining two months of the late Diane Feinstein’s term and one for the next full term that starts in Jan 2025. Conveniently, they both feature the same two candidates: Adam Schiff (DEM) and Steve Garvey (REP). Given that this is CA, the result of this election is hardly in doubt, but given the stakes of this election, why take a chance? Vote for Adam Schiff.

Prop 2: Public Schools & Community College Bonds

The last time CA voters approved a new school bond was in 2016 and even a casual observer can tell that a large proportion of our schools are in dire need of repairs and improvements. There is some consensus that this is a well crafted prop but one aspect gives me some pause — getting money from this bond is contingent on local authorities coming up with matching funds. That seems to be a disadvantage to poorer localities that are already strapped for cash. Overall though, this one falls in the “does more good than harm” category and as such, Vote YES.

Prop 3: Constitutional Amendment to Right to Marriage

This proposition seeks to correct what many see as a historical misstep in progressive California. Back in 2008, voters passed Prop 8 which defined marriage as between “one man and one woman.” This was rendered moot by the 2015 Supreme Court Obergefell decision that legalized gay marriage, but has remained on the books in our state. This is our chance to correct that mistake. Vote YES.

Prop 4: Bonds for Safe Drinking Water, Wildfire Prevention, etc

This prop calls for a Yes/No vote on a $10 Billion bond to pay for various measures meant to combat the impact of climate change. The proposal spells out in fair amount of detail about how the money can be spent, but that does not ease the concern that long term borrowing is often used to pay for short term projects and this one includes some rather goofy things like funding for farmers’ markets (albeit a small fraction). But, there are no perfect measures and politicians will find ways to redirect or misuse funds and that alone is not a sufficient reason to not do anything. The prop seems written well enough to warrant my support, even if somewhat reluctantly. Vote YES.

Prop 5: Allow local bonds for affordable housing with 55% of the vote

I flip-flopped on this one. My initial instinct was to oppose it on the principle that we shouldn’t be making it any easier to pass a bond measure. But after reading some more about it, I changed my mind. First, it is narrowly focused on the housing crisis and not a blanket change. Second, it overcomes a bit of the “tyranny of the minority” where a third of the electorate can stymie the will of the majority. Vote YES.

Prop 6: Remove constitutional provision to force prisoners to work

It seems remarkable that what essentially amounts to slavery or indentured service is still constitutionally permitted in California in 2024. Also remarkably, we are actually way behind the curve on this one — we are only one of eight states that still permits this. It’s time to erase this blemish. Vote YES.

Prop 32: Raise Minimum Wage

The proposal is to raise the minimum wage in two steps — right away (for the rest of 2024) to $17 and then to $18, starting in 2025. If there is one thing that both the Left and the Right can agree on, it is that inequality is at an all-time high. Of course there is no similar consensus on the fixes (or indeed, whether there need to be any), but for me, raising the minimum wage seems like a good first step. Vote YES.

Prop 33: Expand Rent Control Authority

This prop would make it possible for local jurisdictions to enforce their own rent controls. This might seem a bit arcane, but has attracted a huge amount of money — almost $35 million on the YES side and nearly $67 million on the NO side. Somewhat curiously — but not really when you realize what is at stake- the main parties are the same as that for Prop 34, but with their positions flipped. It is hard to argue in favor of landlords when all the stories are about housing shortages and soaring rents, but it does feel like this prop would make the housing crisis worse by discouraging the construction of new rental properties. Vote NO.

Prop 34: Medi-Cal Price Negotiation

This is a sneaky one. It is dressed up as a “patient protection” measure, but is oddly enough bankrolled almost entirely by the California Apartment Association and not by any kind of patient advocacy group. The text of the prop is also very specific and it is an open secret that it was crafted to apply to just one group — the AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF). This prop is colloquially referred to as the “Revenge of the Landlords” and that should tell you everything you need to know. You could also consider that the Landlords’ Association has contributed over $29 Million in support of this prop while the main opponent — the AHF — has spent just over $1M in opposing it. This is an abuse of the voter initiative process and should be defeated. Vote NO.

Prop 35: Make Permanent tax on Managed Health Care Plans to support Medi-Cal

Currently, Managed Care Operators (MCOs) have to pay a tax for every enrollee, which is then used to (partially) fund the Medi-Cal program and a bunch of other things. This tax has to be renewed every two years. This prop calls for a couple of changes: (1) Make the tax permanent and (2) Constrain how the tax proceeds can be used — making it somewhat more advantageous for the Medi-Cal program. This is one of those rare props for which there is no organized opposition and even more rarely, endorsed by both the Democratic and Republican parties of California. Vote YES.

Prop 36: Drug and Theft Charges to Become Felonies

Prop 36 is trying to undo some of the criminal justice reforms put in place by Prop 47 passed by California voters in 2014. Prop 47 was aimed at prison overcrowding and (along with Prop 57 in 2016) has largely succeeded in its goals. One unintended consequence (especially, post-Covid) has been the rash of shoplifting crimes that go essentially unpunished because if the loss is under $950, it is treated as a misdemeanor. Prop 36 specifically aims to undo this provision (among others) and is not surprisingly largely bankrolled by several big retailers (Walmart, Target, Home Depot, etc). While I agree with the underlying goals in principle, sending more people to prisons is not going to solve the issues — we would just be returning to a broken system. Vote NO.

Regional

US Representative 50th District

The choice is between incumbent Scott Peters (DEM) and Peter Bono (REP). Peters has been a competent congressman by all accounts and I see no reason to vote him out. And if the Dems are going to hemorrhage seats in CA, they can kiss goodbye any chance of regaining the House. Vote for Scott Peters

State Assembly 76th District

This election pits Darshana Patel (DEM) against Kristie Bruce-Lane (REP) to replace the popular termed-out incumbent Brian Maienschein. Maienschein used to be in the GOP, but switched parties in 2019 because he couldn’t tolerate Trump’s hold on the Republican party (or was prescient to notice the leftward shift of his district). The GOP would love to flip this seat back into their column, but if the demographics of the district hold — it now leans Democratic — Dr. Patel should make it through. Like many of the readers of this blog, I know Darshana Patel personally and have no hesitation in endorsing her. Vote for Darshana Patel.

San Diego County

San Diego County Board of Supervisors District 3

This is a heavily contested race between Kevin Faulconer and incumbent Terra Lawson-Remer, partly because this race could flip the (ostensibly non-partisan) board from majority Democrat to majority Republican (as it used to be for the longest time). Kevin Faulconer, an ex-Mayor of San Diego who oversaw some of the worst real estate deals in the city (which has a history of making terrible deals) has run a mostly dishonest campaign against incumbent Terra Lawson-Remer. His attacks boil down to a single issue — that of Lawson-Remer not attending certain meetings of a homelessness commission, in person (but she sent a representative). We don’t want a politician who is beholden to developers back in office. Vote for Terra Lawson-Remer.

County Board of Education — 4th District

If you are wondering what the County Board of Education does, join the gang. Turns out that they are responsible for operating special needs schools and services and their biggest issue is chronic absenteeism and high rates (north of 20%) of suspensions (basically, the go-to disciplinary measure). Both candidates vying for this (nonpartisan) seat are registered Democrats and both have been endorsed by the Democratic Party of San Diego. Both candidates also have very relevant work experience, but I find Erin Evans’ overall resume somewhat more impressive. Vote for Erin Evans.

San Diego County Measure G

Measure G proposes a permanent half-cent increase in sales tax for SD County that is targeted to a bunch of infrastructure projects that would be managed by SANDAG (SD Association of Governments). Unfortunately, SANDAG has one of the worst reputations for good governance and even some members of their current board oppose this measure. VOTE NO.

San Diego County Measure D

Proposes some changes to strengthen ethics commission. Vote YES.

San Diego City

San Diego Mayor

In this race, incumbent mayor Todd Gloria goes up against challenger Larry Turner. It’s not clear what challenger Larry Turner, who is an ex-Marine, would bring to the table — his platform is full of vague and sometimes bizarre promises. The biggest issue faced by San Diego (as with many other big cities) is homelessness and Turner’s preferred solution is both impractical and inhumane. Todd Gloria has had plenty of stumbles but he has been trying lots of ideas and continues to be open to new ones. The city is also in relatively good shape and Gloria deserves a second term, especially when the alternative is Larry Turner. Vote for Todd Gloria.

San Diego City Attorney

Deputy city attorney Heather Ferbert goes up against termed-out Assemblyman, Brian Maienschein in this open race. After being term-limited from his Assembly seat, Maienschein seems to have gone hunting for a new elected office and has trained his eyes on the office of the San Diego City Attorney. While he does have a law degree, he has also been away from practicing law for a long time, while being a politician. The City Attorney needs to be a check against career politicians and special interests. Heather Ferbert is a deputy of the outgoing incumbent, Mara Elliott and has her endorsement. Elliott has been an effective voice against the worst impulses of the city council and one hopes that her deputy will stay the course. Vote for Heather Ferbert.

San Diego City Measure E

Measure E proposes a permanent one cent increase in sales tax for SD City and if Measures E and G both pass, SD city residents can look forward to a permanent 1.5c increase in their sales tax. It is no secret that SD has a huge backlog of infrastructure needs — the last estimate was around $9 billion. For a city that has an annual budget of about $2.1 billion, there is no hope of catching up to the backlog anytime soon. Not to mention that there is a projected shortfall of $200 million in this year’s budget. Measure E would net the city about $400 million which is supposed to be directed entirely towards infrastructure needs. Except that it is not actually part of the measure. The council is allowed to spend the money as they see fit since it will become part of the general fund. And you can bet that the first $200 million will go towards closing that budgetary gap. In many respects, I think SD is governed pretty well, but our politicians have made too many big ticket mistakes to have us just take their word. We at least need a more tightly written measure. Vote NO.

Local

Poway Unified School District Trustee Area A

This race is in some ways part deux of the same race in 2020, which was between Tim Dougherty and the current incumbent, Darshana Patel. Patel handily defeated Dougherty four years ago and is trying to move up into the State Assembly (see above), which has made this an open seat. Tim is running again, this time against Devesh Vashishtha, who is endorsed by Darshana Patel. I struggled with this race. The Darshana Patel endorsement gives significant credibility to Devesh, but he has close to zero experience with schools. Tim, OTOH, has been active in schools (PTA, etc), town councils, etc. Their platforms overlap quite a bit with the overarching focus on budgetary challenges, but Devesh makes an emphasis on mental health issues which is not only a valuable point in my mind, but also carries extra credibility given that he is a practicing medical doctor. Vote for Devesh Vashishtha.